Bad news. State Rep. Michael Jackson (D-Baton Rouge) is telling Roll Call that he’s “very likely” to run for Congress again after losing the special Democratic primary to Don Cazayoux — only this time, as an independent:
Jackson, the vice chairman of the Louisiana Legislative Black Caucus, said he’s fully aware that some Republicans want him in the race and that Democratic leaders want him on the sidelines.
“Both sides have shown an interest in whether or not I’m in this race,” he said. “Republicans feel it might help their position and Democrats feel like it may hurt their position.”
However, Jackson said, “my goal would be to run to win and to maximize the opportunity and to maximize my chances. and it appears that the best way to do that right now is to do it as an Independent.”
Jackson, whose state legislative district is in Baton Rouge, said the main reason he’s filing as an Independent is because he’s concerned about the cost of running in a primary and general election. […]
“We’re just trying to utilize our resources in a way that makes sense,” Jackson said.
But he added that although he would be on the ballot as an Independent, he intends to preach a Democratic message during his campaign.
“It’s not that I’m disassociating myself [from] the Democrats … my banner will be an Independent-Democrat, I’ll stay connected to the philosophy that way.”
I’m not sure what Jackson is trying to accomplish. At “best” he will win enough support in Baton Rouge to split the Democratic vote and let GOP state Sen. Bill Cassidy defeat Cazayoux. It would be a terrible shame if that happened.
In Cazayoux’s corner, he will have incumbency, DCCC protection, and solid support from local Democrats (Jackson notwithstanding). But make no mistake: this would be an awfully hard race for Cazayoux to win, and it would put every political fiber in his body to the test.
SSP currently rates this race as Leans Democratic, but we will make an immediate race rating revision if Jackson enters this race as an independent.
Doesn’t LA’s runoff system essentially nullify any fear that the two Dems might split the vote and allow the Republican to win?
Jackson knows what he’s doing. He simply wants to hurt Cazayoux to make a point. Lydia Jackson may do the same in LA-04.
Jackson’s impact can be minalmized to 3 to 4 percent. Isn’t there a former Republican running as an independant too? Cazayoux could win 48-47, if he runs the campaign of the decade. What about Jan Schneider, the two tikme Democratic nominee in FL-14, who after losing the primary last tiem around, fair and square, got pouty that this time the national party wanted to support the candidate who came within 300 votes of winning. Is she still running as an independant? It might not matter there. If Buchannon’s scandals really blow up later towards election day, and he’s in court, under indictment, Jennings could probably win 45-44-11, if Schneider does really well.
DCCC can cover the rest, as long as Jackson doesn’t really get off the ground.
Jackson’s “plan” is pretty simple. Even though only 30.4% of registered voters in the district are black, he has the delusion that the turnout of black voters will be around 100% with white voters at 60% and evenly split (or close to it). Under those circumstances Jackson would get 130,000 votes and his opponents would split 170,000 votes and Jackson romps home.
Where do we start? Jackson could not get 100% of the black vote in a Democratic primary (if he could it would have been pretty much a toss up) so there is no way he’ll do far better as an independent. Especially since over 20,000 of those votes are for blacks registered as other and 3,000 are for black Republicans in LA-6.
There’s no way, either, that black turnout will be 100% and white turnout is 60%. Jackson may well get 60,000 votes if everything goes right in a 300,000 vote election (it was 262,000 in 2004). That 20% is his ceiling. Enough to screw things up but not enough to come close to winning. He is more likely to poll 30,000 or 40,000 votes: still enough to screw things up in a close election. Turn him into a pariah and he really is at 10,000 votes and the problem can be overcome.
. . . needs to make an appearance or two with Cazayoux at a rally.
I’m hoping he is punished immensley by the state legislature. Strip him of all committee assignments and him chairing the CBC (I thought I read that he was chair somewhere.)
Seriously, what an absolutely fucking asshole. Just to prove his point he feels the need to completely screw over our chances of keeping this seat. And even if he doesnt actually run, the idea that he is even contemplating it is ridiculous. It would’ve been one thing had the seat still been held by a Republican but now that he is obviously killing our chances of maintaining the new incumbent Democratic Congressmen is ridiculous.
… but would the said race rating revision be to ‘Toss Up’ or ‘Leans GOP’?
Now I know it’s Human Nature to lash out like this when you think you’ve been wronged, but the rationale for this candidacy is Off the Wall. Now Cazayoux is going to have to be Working Day and Night, and the election will probably still turn out to be a Thriller.
this will suck. but a few things in cazayoux’s favor:
1) His campaign will have tons more money than Jackson and probably a lot more than Cassidy.
2) He’s democratic Congressman Cazayoux and most voters will know it on election day.
3) He will have a D next to his name along with Obama and many of the folks in Baton Rouge have already voted for him. Jackson will have an I next to his name, and I’ll bet even many of his constituents have no idea who he is.
I hope Mr. jackson decides that he believes in Democratic ideals enough to not do this dumb thing.
How will we know when/if he does? And is anyone aware of the filing deadline tomorrow?